Iyke

By Ikechukwu Amaechi

 

Published: March 3, 2009

 

Once again, there is a tantalizing whiff of politics in the air. Not that the perfume ever faded. No. Nigeria is a country in a permanent state of politicking. The end of one election cycle marks the beginning of another. Unlike in some other democracies, there is no break, no period for governance. It is all about politics and little or no governance.

 

How can there be governance when those who claim to have won the 2007 elections are still in court almost two years after with those they claim to have defeated? The way things are going, some of the election petitions will still be in the tribunals by the time elections are held in 2011. And the vicious circle will continue.

 

But 2011 promises to be a very interesting election year, not necessarily in substance but drama. We are not likely to have better quality of candidates. The politicians will still be up to their shenanigans. The electoral environment may be less rancorous, though, and the political parties, especially the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) may be more internally democratic, not necessarily because the politicians have changed for the better but because, we no longer have a president who would swear that as long as he remains the Commander-in-Chief, a candidate of his party will never contest an election.

 

If any good will ever come out of the lackluster Umaru Yar’Adua President, it is the possibility that, unlike his predecessor, Olusegun Obasanjo, he will most likely create a level playing field. Not that the hawks in the party, men and women, who thrive in political chicanery won’t try to play the vicious game as usual, but they are less likely to get a listening ear in Yar’Adua than they got in Obasanjo who was a willing ally in their perfidy.

 

Does that mean that come 2011, we will be out of the political woods? Far from it! I dare predict that ballot boxes will still be snatched; some people will still be assassinated because of their political beliefs. It may even be more violent because the fact that there won’t be an Obasanjo to ride roughshod over everybody else and intimidate the opposition into submission will embolden the electorate to protect their votes. In which case, anybody who tries to tamper with such votes will be fiercely resisted.

 

But I am already enjoying it. Less than two years after the last elections were held and more than two years before new polls will be conducted, the political intrigues and arm-twisting are sharpening. The sound bites are getting ominously loud. Such catch-phrases as “No vacancy in Government House” made popular by Chief Tony Anenih when he was still Obasanjo’s political doppelganger, are beginning to re-echo.

 

Over the weekend, the Deputy Governor of Oyo State, Mr. Taofeek Arapaja, a man whose only qualification for such high state office is that he was late Lamidi Adedibu’s lickspittle, pasted a caveat emptor at the gate of Oyo State Government House, Agodi. To him, there is no vacancy at Agodi House and those nursing the ambition of occupying it in 2011 should perish the thought. “There is no vacancy in Agodi Government House. Let them (aspirants) cooperate with Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala or look elsewhere to actualize their dreams,” he told PDP members over the weekend.

 

It would have been heartwarming if Arapaja is saying that because of the excellent performance of their government in the past 22 months, he is sure that the people will pass a vote of confidence in them by voting them in for a second term. No! Oyo governorship has become Alao-Akala’s birthright and he must serve a second term, willy-nilly, whether the people want him or not.

 

And this is what worries me. Who are the likes of Arapaja speaking for when they make such statements? Could he be speaking on behalf of the people? Did he consult them before claiming that there is no vacancy? What if the people say otherwise tomorrow? Won’t Arapaja and his boss try to subvert the electoral will of the people? Shouldn’t a second term in office be a reward for job well done in the first term?

 

At the centre, a lot of interesting political scenarios are beginning to manifest. There are indications that at last, the marriage of convenience between General Muhammed Buhari and the apparatchik of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) will not subsist till 2011. Could he be crossing over to the highly reinvigorated Action Congress (AC) to run with Senator Bola Tinubu, who has clearly emerged as the political whiz kid of the Southwest? Tinubu is gradually but steadily stepping into Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s big political shoes. With his big war chest and undeniable political brilliance, it will be a formidable team. If that happens, it will be the second time in less than two decades that Nigerians will be presented with a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket. The first time was in 1993 when late Moshood Abiola picked Alhaji Babagana Kingibe as his running mate in the June 12, 19993 Presidential election. The ticket triumphed but the election was annulled by General Ibrahim Babangida.

 

If Buhari moves over to the AC, then former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, is obviously out of the party. A master in political double-speak, Atiku will not confirm if he is going back to the PDP, the party he exited to contest the Presidency on the platform of the AC in 2007. That year, he promised Tinubu the Vice Presidential ticket but political expediency made him to dump Tinubu and opt for Senator Ben Obi. There is every reason to believe that the former Lagos State Governor has neither forgotten nor forgiving, particularly when he had to forgo the Senatorial seat which Ganiyu Solomon is now occupying. Now that Tinubu has the party firmly in his grips, it will definitely be pay back time.

 

So, to PDP Atiku goes back as he hinted last week. “If God spares my life till 2011, I will run again, either on PDP ticket, opposition or as an independent,” he reportedly told a group of friends at a restaurant in London on Thursday. But it is nothing surprising. It was obvious even to the politically undiscerning that his meeting with Obasanjo is nothing more than a political gang-up against the jaded Yar’Adua regime. If Atiku picks the ticket, he will likely still look towards the Southeast for a running mate. Former Senate President, Ken Nnamani, is waiting in the wings, that is, if Obasanjo approves.

 

But the former Vice President is bound to meet, perhaps the stiffest opposition in his entire political career this time around. Believe it or not, Yar’Adua wants a second term in office and he is prepared to fight for it. Atiku likes boasting that he is the founder of the PDP but the fact remains that as the President, Yar’Adua is no longer a joiner, he is now a co-founder. He is likely to run for a second term with the Vice President, Jonathan Goodluck. Despite the muted cry in some quarters that some Northerners are opposed to him because he is not assertive, the fact remains that the president has “done well for his people.” The fight between Yar’Adua and Atiku will be interesting.

 

But again, my worry is that these are men who see power as an end in itself, not a means to an end. In a 21^st century world where countries faced with gargantuan problems, are putting the right foot forward leadership-wise, here, it is politics for the sake of politics and quest for power for the narrowest of interests. Just like we have realized in the past 22 months, the way we are going, come May 29, 2011, we will, once again, be out on a limb.